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The Blank Swan: The End of Probability Elie Ayache
Publisher: Wiley

A "black swan" is an event which has a very small probability of occurring, but if it does, has very serious consequences. Confidence is an apt word to use here, since our estimates of . Something "nontechnical readers" may just be best poised to sniff out, in addition to the fact that he is telling you not to read the chapter: Taleb is saying, in essence (pretend that footnote has a double asterisk at the end): "Forget everything you heard in college statistics or probability theory. A little effort with prioritisation not only brings the fuzzy front end into focus, it also speeds up the end to end delivery and the most critical feedback loop of them all: from Idea to Information. We all have experied this, right? Like running They may get us a small gain in time or convenience or in boosted ego but might end up in an accident. May 19, 2014 - Now, The Black Swan isn't the worst book in the history of civilization, and this isn't the kind of cutesy blog where I follow that up with "At least it's not Atlas Shrugged LMAO". Aug 16, 2011 - The tornado that nearly leveled the city of Joplin, Missouri in May was a black swan; so was the 9.0 magnitude earthquake and tsunami that rocked Japan in March; and the “hundred-year floods” that now take place every couple of years in the American Midwest. Nov 13, 2008 - Black Swan Theory. A black swan is a low-probability, high-impact event that tears at the very fabric of civilization. Are more likely to contain the diamonds we are looking for. Dec 12, 2013 - Black Swan (Calvin Teo) COGwriter Scoop, a New Zealand based organization, had the following: Dec 12, 2013 One of the more interesting recent. Upon seeing Darren Aronofsky's Black Swan and having particularly enjoyed the Nietzschean interpretations of There Will be Blood (Issue 74) and The Departed (Issue 65) in Philosophy Now film columns, I felt compelled… As the film nears its end, we see Nina bleeding, in all probability, to her death. Jan 26, 2014 - Whilst it is trivial to imagine the possibility of the market moving up or down, we do not know the probability of the direction and even less about the magnitude. Those that heed the admonitions of Jesus and the Apostle Paul and properly understand end-time prophecy will not be surprised by the 'black swan' events that will affect the USA and Anglo-Saxon nations or the rest of the world. The black swan theory refers to a large-impact, hard-to-predict, and rare event beyond the realm of normal expectations. To give birth to a dancing star.” Friedrich Nietzsche, Thus Spoke Zarathustra, I, v. The "Black Swans" just showing how the Earth's capacity of living people is coming near its end. Jun 15, 2011 - The upheavals in the Middle East have much in common with the recent global financial crisis: both were plausible worst-case scenarios whose probability was dramatically underestimated.